Single-family prices at all-time highs, inventory levels recovering
For Immediate Release: The following analysis of the Hillsborough County housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. and is based on May 2021 Florida Realtors® data.
The median sale price for single-family homes hit an all-time high of $334,950, while townhome and condo prices dipped $5,000 from last month’s record high of $225,000. The average price for single-family homes soared to a record $439,662, driving single-family volume up 71% to $882.8 million. Sales remain strong, especially when compared to last year’s pandemic numbers, with single-family up 28.3% and multi-family up 42.2%. Single- family inventories have meaningfully risen for two-months in a row, while multifamily inventories appear to be bottoming. I suspect inventory levels are likely to increase over the rest of the year, and it will be important to monitor the magnitude of the rise. Still, days on market plummeted to just five for both types of properties, a level that would have seemed impossible just months ago, and there is still well less than one month’s supply of inventory of available properties. Hillsborough County continues to benefit from unrelenting buyer demand that shows no sign of letup.
21Q2 GDP growth will exceed 9% and possibly a mind-blowing 10%, encouraged by the residual effects of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, and a strong demand for dining out, travel and other services. At worst, this year will experience the highest rate of growth in 40 years and at best, it could be the strongest since 1950. While inflation has certainly made its presence felt over the last few months, by doubling from 2% to 4%, the Fed has been quite masterful in reassuring investors and markets that this inflationary pressure is short-term and will subside over the next 12 months. As a result, interest rates have remained pleasantly unchanged. Next on the Fed’s agenda is tapering of their purchases of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities, which should commence in early 2022, with interest rate hikes starting in 2023. I suspect the 30-year mortgage rate will end 2021 up by, at most, a quarter-point.
• Median price for single-family homes rose to an all-time high of $334,950, up 21.8% from last year. Townhomes and condos dipped below last month’s all-time high, but at $220,000, are still up a significant 11.4% over last year.
• Townhome and condo sales increased by 42.2% over last year to 603, and sales of single-family homes were up 28.3% to 2,008.
• Single-family new listings are improving and approaching historical May levels. Multifamily listings are almost unchanged.
• Active inventories of townhomes and condos set a new all-time low at 333, down 71.1% from last year. Single-family active listings of 1,405 are down 57.6% from last year but continue to slowly recover from March’s all-time low level. Month’s supply of inventory remains the same as last month, at 0.7 for single-family and 0.6 for multifamily.
• Median time to contract slid to an astonishing and record low of 5 days for both types of properties (compared to 25 days for single-family and 28 days for townhomes and condos last year).
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a Miami-based firm specializing in national and international macroeconomic consulting and speaking. Dr. Eisenberg earned his Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University and was formerly an economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C. He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.
About Greater Tampa REALTORS® – As “Your Premier Real Estate Resource” in Tampa since 1911, Greater Tampa REALTORS® (GTR), represents nearly 14,000 members and is the largest Tampa Bay-based professional association of real estate brokers and sales associates conducting business throughout the Bay area. GTR represents REALTORS® who are involved in the following specialties: residential sales, commercial sales and investment, property management, and appraisals. The term “REALTOR®” is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and abides by its strict Code of Ethics.