Median prices at all-time highs, inventories at all-time lows
For Immediate Release: The following analysis of the Hillsborough County housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. and is based on March 2021 Florida Realtors® data.
TAMPA, FL – Market Overview:
Median sale prices for both single-family homes and townhome/condos reached all-time highs of $315,000 and $215,000, respectively. Average prices for single-family homes are also at a record high of $402,089, and while not at a record, the townhome/condo price of $286,440 is among the highest average prices on record. Sales of multi-family properties were up 31.6% over last year while single-family sales rose by a strong 11.6%. New listings of single-family homes were down a slight 1.7%, while townhome and condo listings were down a slightly larger 5.9% compared to last year. Inventories plummeted compared to last year, with single-family levels down 67.4% from last year and multi-family inventories down 68.0%. There are only 1,636 properties on the market in Hillsborough County, down 11.9% from last month’s previous all-time low. Days on market are just a week for single-family homes and just eleven days for multi-family properties, both all-time lows, and month’s supply of inventory has now dropped to 0.7 months for both types of properties, also record lows. Pending sales of both types of properties are at record high levels at the end of March, suggesting that demand remains very strong, even with profoundly limited supply.
Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is now likely to exceed 6.5%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3. By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a still remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023. The Fed remains strongly wedded to their existing inflation-fighting plans and does not anticipate raising short-term rates before 2023 and are unlikely to commence their tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022. Therefore, interest rates are likely to rise by no more than a half point by year end. As far as housing is concerned, part of the recently announced infrastructure plan is a $213 billion investment in affordable housing, along with a plan to offer a competitive grant program that would reward jurisdictions that address exclusionary zoning and land use policies that create barriers to affordable housing. This should increase the stock of entry-level homes, which we sorely need.
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- Single-family home prices rose to an all-time high of $315,000, up 19.3% from last year. Townhomes and condos were also at an all-time high of $215,000, up 17.8% from last year. Both types of properties saw the largest gains in price appreciation in almost eight years.
- Townhome and condo sales rose by 31.6% to a record level of 670, the largest year-over-year percentage gain since February of 2011. Sales of single-family homes were up 11.6% to 2,061, a March record.
- New listings were down for both types of properties, although single-family home listings were only down by 1.7%, much less than the decreases seen since the start of the year, while townhome/condo new listings declined by 5.9%, the first decline since last June.
- Active inventories of properties continue their staggering declines to all-time lows, with just 1,254 single-family homes (a 67.4% decline over last year) and 382 multi-family homes (a decline of 68.0%). There is a 0.7 month’s supply of both types of properties, record lows for both, and down nearly 70% from last year’s levels.
- Median time to contract is at all-time lows, with single-family homes at 7 days and 11 days for townhomes and condos (both down from 28 days last year). For more information about market housing stats or to request an interview with Dr. Eisenberg, contact Director of Community Affairs Joey Henderson at 813.879.7010 (email@example.com). ###
Dr. Elliot Eisenberg
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a Miami-based firm specializing in national and international macroeconomic consulting and speaking. Dr. Eisenberg earned his Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University and was formerly an economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C. He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.
About Greater Tampa REALTORS®
As “Your Premier Real Estate Resource” in Tampa since 1911, Greater Tampa REALTORS® (GTR), represents nearly 14,000 members and is the largest Tampa Bay-based professional association of real estate brokers and sales associates conducting business throughout the Bay area. GTR represents REALTORS® who are involved in the following specialties: residential sales, commercial sales and investment, property management, and appraisals. The term “REALTOR®” is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and abides by its strict Code of Ethics.