National Public Radio’s highest-rated affiliate, 89.3 KPCC Southern California serving Los Angeles and Orange County, recently hosted Sarasota investment advisor Raul Elizalde as a guest on the NPR station’s popular Air Talk with Larry Mantle program. As a columnist for Forbes.com, Elizalde writes regularly about the economy and was invited on the program to share his analysis and insight into the likelihood, timing, and potential for a U.S. recession within the next six to 24 months.
During the program, which aired Aug. 22, Elizalde discussed his reasons for believing that if a recession does occur, it will much earlier than 2021 and possibly as early as the first or second quarter of 2020. Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed recently by the National Association for Business Economics said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. An additional 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur in 2020.
Though some economic indicators may seem sound right now, Elizalde pointed out on the program that economic indicators don’t always weaken prior to a recession — as was seen in 2000 and 2008. Elizalde also pointed out that while consumer spending is strong, it is focused on essential needs like rent, health care and education rather than on discretionary items, which undermines the idea that strong consumption can stave off a recession.
Click this link to listen to the NPR-LA Aug 22 Air Talk program featuring Raul Elizalde: ttps://www.scpr.org/programs/airtalk/2019/08/22/64807/are-there-indicators-that-the-economy-is-turning-t/
As an economic and investment commentator and former Wall Street strategist, Elizalde has made presentations at the World Bank, appeared on Reuters and Bloomberg TV, and been quoted in the financial pages of The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Financial Times and The New York Times. His economic and investment analyses have been published online by some of the most respected financial media in the country, including Investopedia, Morningstar, Motley Fool, the Street and Yahoo! Finance.
Raul Elizalde is the president, chief investment officer and founder of Path Financial, a Florida-registered investment firm with offices at 1990 Main St., in Sarasota, Florida. He manages client portfolios in Florida and across the U.S., with a strong emphasis on minimizing clients’ exposure to risk. For more information, call 941.350.7904, visit pathfinancial.net, follow Elizalde’s Forbes column (forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde), or connect on Twitter (@pathfin) and Facebook.com/PathFinancial.