News channel 8 Election Poll Results:
Crist BACK ON TOP IN FLORIDA SEESAW,
CUBA VISIT IMPACT & CLINTON VS. BUSH POLL FOR 2016
Tampa, Fla. – News Channel 8, the Tampa Bay area’s leading political news station, announces exclusive results from a News Channel 8 statewide poll on the upcoming governor’s race conducted by SurveyUSA. In an election for governor of Florida today, Democrat Charlie Crist is newly invigorated, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today it’s Crist 44%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. Compared to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 2 points. Then, Scott led by 2 points; Today, Crist leads by 4.
This SurveyUSA poll is the first since Crist announced that he may visit Cuba this summer. When likely November voters are asked whether a trip to Cuba makes it more or less likely that a voter would support that candidate, we find a “wash”:
- 12% say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
• 12% say it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
• 73% say it makes no difference.
But, that apparent “wash” may mask underlying volatility. Among Cubans – and acknowledging that this is a small sample – Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, the lowest recorded in five SurveyUSA tracking polls. Crist is at 46% among Cubans, up from the most recent SurveyUSA poll, but consistent with where Crist was in April. In Southeast Florida (home to Miami and Fort Lauderdale), Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, a new low. Crist’s 25-point lead in Southeast Florida is his largest in five tracking polls. Among the most educated voters, Scott’s support has dropped to 37%, the lowest it has been in five polls. Among the most affluent voters, Crist closes to within 3 points of Scott, 48% to 45%. This is the closest Crist has drawn to Scott in this typically Republican sub-population.
Consistent with the overall findings, those who say a Cuba trip makes them more likely to support a candidate back Crist 6:1. Those who say a Cuba trip makes them less likely to support a candidate back Scott by 3:1.
Switching gears: In a hypothetical election for President of the United States in Florida today, 30 months until votes would be counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Jeb Bush 47% to 41%. Bush defeats Joe Biden 47% to 38%. Looking at how women vote tells a large part of the story. In a Clinton-Bush matchup, Clinton carries women by 15 points. In a Biden-Bush match-up, Bush carries women, though narrowly, 45% to 43%.
News Channel 8 News Director Bill Berra says, “The seesaw nature of this important race is one of the biggest reasons everyone should study the issues. The Florida Governor’s race is one of the most important races this fall. We want our viewers to be well informed, to take the time to study the issues and vote for the best candidate. That is what being ‘On Your Side’ is all about.”
In the survey, conducted from 06/05/14 to 06/10/14, 556 likely voters interviewed responded to these questions:
|If the election for Florida governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? … (candidate names rotated) Republican Rick Scott? Democrat Charlie Crist? Or some other candidate?|
|40%||Rick Scott (R)|
|44%||Charlie Crist (D)|
Thinking ahead now to the 2016 election for President of the United States. If the 2016 election for President were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
|41%||Jeb Bush (R)|
|47%||Hillary Clinton (D)|
|47%||Jeb Bush (R)|
|38%||Joe Biden (D)|
During the next five months, News Channel 8 will conduct exclusive polls focusing on Florida’s race for governor and releasing the results on WFLA.com and News Channel 8 Tuesdays at 6 p.m. Poll results will be released bi-weekly on Tuesdays leading up to the primary election on Aug. 26, and every Tuesday at 6 p.m. between the primary results and the general election on Nov. 4.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 950 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/05/14 through 06/10/14. Of the adults, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 556 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the Nov. 4 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
About Media General
Media General, Inc. is a leading local television broadcasting and digital media company, providing top-rated news, information and entertainment in strong markets across the U.S. The company owns or operates 31 network-affiliated broadcast television stations and their associated digital media and mobile platforms, in 28 markets. These stations reach 16.5 million, or 14%, of U.S. TV households. Sixteen of the 31 stations are located in the top 75 designated market areas. Media General first entered the local television business in 1955 when it launched WFLA in Tampa, Florida as an NBC affiliate. The company subsequently expanded its station portfolio through acquisition. In November of 2013, Media General and Young Broadcasting merged, combining Media General’s 18 stations and Young’s 13 stations.